Within a week of the war breaking out between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the situation is becoming increasingly complex, presenting new risks for US President Donald Trump, according to analysts.
A Reuters report states that the conflict has not ceased despite the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and extensive attacks on Iranian military installations. Instead, it is gradually escalating into a regional conflict, which could push the United States towards long-term military involvement.
Experts say that the military operation launched by the Trump administration, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury,” has become the largest US military campaign since the 2003 Iraq War. However, many believe there is a lack of clarity regarding the objectives and ultimate outcome of this operation.
Laura Blumenfeld, an analyst at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, stated that the Iran war could be complex and protracted. It could significantly impact the global economy, Middle Eastern stability, and US domestic politics.
Specifically, ahead of the upcoming US midterm elections, this war could pose political risks for President Trump’s Republican Party. While a significant portion of his “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” movement still supports him, there is concern that this support could wane if the war drags on.
Meanwhile, there is a growing fear that Iranian counter-attacks could further broaden the conflict. Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group, has resumed attacks against Israel, creating a risk of the war spreading to new fronts.
Another major concern for analysts is the crucial energy route, the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through this strait. Disruptions to tanker traffic are currently causing significant impacts on the global economy.
So far, six US soldiers are reported to have been killed in the conflict. Analysts believe that if the casualty count rises, public pressure against the war among the American populace could also increase.
According to many analysts, the Trump administration might have assumed that the outcome of the Iran operation would be as swift as the Venezuela operation. However, Iran has proven to be a much tougher adversary due to its robust military capabilities and influential security framework.
Meanwhile, the duration of the war remains uncertain. President Trump has stated that the operation could last four to five weeks, or even longer if necessary.
However, even if the military strategy proves successful, the war’s planning from a political and diplomatic standpoint has not been sufficiently thought through, commented former US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges.
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